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Models of Injury Occurrence, Prevention and Prediction

overuse injuries and burnout (Brenner, 2007; Mason et al., 2023;
Tawfeeq & Malm, 2025; Viegas et al., 2022).
In wrestling, similar predictive models could be developed in the fu-
ture; however, this would require long-term and systematic collection of
data on injuries and training loads across multiple clubs and/or nation-
al teams. Until then, it is more practical for coaches and practitioners to
combine:
• conceptual models (epidemiological model, Haddon matrix, van
Mechelen model, TRIPP, and TIP);
• clinical judgement and detailed knowledge of their athletes; and
• simple screening procedures to identify individuals at higher risk.
In this way, injury-prediction models do not replace the fundamental
principles of injury prevention, but rather complement them by helping
to identify those athletes for whom an additional preventive focus may
be warranted.

Predictive Models of Injury Risk in Early Childhood
Similarly to elite sport, mathematical models are increasingly being used
in children to estimate the probability of injury. These models are based
on logistic regression and link various predictors (e.g., anthropometric
characteristics, motor abilities, and load parameters) with the outcome –
the occurrence of an injury. In the paediatric literature, many models fo-
cus primarily on predicting mortality or severe outcomes following injury
(e.g., the simplified Thai paediatric trauma outcome prediction model)
(Vallipakorn et al., 2014), whereas models that predict the risk of injury
occurrence itself on the basis of specific predictors are far less common.
Dobnik (2021) developed and tested a predictive model for injuries
occurring during physical and sports activities in early childhood, link-
ing data on fundamental movement patterns, morphological character-
istics, and motor abilities with the later occurrence of injuries. In this
longitudinally designed study, four-year-old children were first compre-
hensively assessed (selected fundamental movement patterns – climb-
ing, crawling, and jumping; body composition; handgrip strength; knee
flexion and extension strength; etc.) and were then followed over a five-
year period with regard to injuries sustained during physical and sports
activities.
The analysis demonstrated that the probability of sustaining a gen-
eral injury during physical or sports activity could be reliably predicted

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