Page 202 - Upland Families, Elites and Communities

Aleksej Kalc

socio-economic situation, frequent crises, intermittent shortages, and epi-
demics, along with other factors. A similar pattern is evident in the Tomaj
area, comparable to the neighbouring parish of Povir and the karstic area
of the municipality of Trieste (Kalc 2017). A more detailed analysis of se-
lected Tomaj family genealogies reveals elements suggesting a certain de-
gree of deliberate birth control during economically challenging periods,
alongside greater reproductive freedom during times of relative economic
ease.
Gaps in the series of death records up to 1646 and between 1665 and 1702
only allow for a partial overview of the crisis moments in the vital dynam-
ics of the parish of Tomaj in the seventeenth century. A significant crisis
occurred in 1650 when the number of deaths nearly tripled compared to
previous years and surpassed at one point the number of births. A second,
less pronounced peak in mortality followed in 1663. Subsequent decades
also witnessed fluctuating mortality rates, along with oscillations in the
population, as indicated by more pronounced fluctuations in the number
of births and other documents detailing the precarious economic situation
and initiatives to secure food supplies (Panjek 2018, 38−9; 2021, 93−104).
Given the inconsistencies of parish registers during this period, particu-
larly in the recording of neonatal deaths, it is plausible that the mortality
rate was even higher than the recorded cases suggest.
The eighteenth century, as already mentioned, witnessed a new period of
demographic vitality, leading to persistent long-term population growth.
This century’s development can be analysed in more detail using the pop-
ulation estimates displayed in table 7.1. The data in column (a) are derived
from the ratio between the population in 1732 (the only available popu-
lation data) and the average number of births over the nine-year interval
from 1728 to 1736. The resulting birth rate of 43.7 per thousand, or a ratio of
one birth for every 22.9 inhabitants, is then multiplied by the average an-
nual number of births for the nine-year interval in question. A natality rate
of over 40 per thousand was not uncommon in the period under scrutiny,
considering that in some parishes in Carniola in the mid-1750s it was 41.5
per thousand and that in 1762 it was as high as 48.3 per thousand in the
Carniolan part of the Ljubljana diocese (Valenčič 1958, 49−50; Šircelj 2006,
55). However, it can be highly volatile, making population projections us-
ing a constant coefficient very approximate and sometimes misleading. A
higher-than-real birth rate produces lower population results, while down-
ward deviations increase the population excessively. Therefore, in column
(b), the population figures obtained by adding (or, before 1732, subtracting)

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